calculated risk. A chance taken after careful estimation of the probable outcome, as in Taking their dispute to arbitration was definitely a calculated risk. This term uses calculated in the sense of “planned with forethought,” a usage from the mid-1800s. (Dictionary.com)
Risk is simply the potential of loss. Higher the loss higher is the risk in any deal or personal life. Limiting your chances of losses is called a calculated risk. It means taking up a deal with a certain level of loss already known which you are ready to bear. (quora)
Why are we exhausted and fatigued and worn out and full of mind fog these days? Could it be something to do with the fact that almost EVERYTHING that we choose to do these days, from the moment we open our eyes and roll out of bed, is a calculated risk? Today, my daughter and I are going to go to our hair salon for only the second time since our state opened back up in the beginning of May. And yet I have butterflies. The deadline for school options for my daughter’s high school was Monday (we chose the online version for the first nine weeks). Our college boys are deciding when to head back to their university, despite the fact that all classes will be online. Our eldest son is supposed to come visit us next week. He will be flying. None of these decisions would have made me lose nary a wink of sleep, at this same time last year. And I wonder why my shoulders are permanently attached to my ears this summer?!?
Below is an excerpt from a Psychology Today article, by Dr. Marcia Reynolds, giving more explanation about how to make decisions about risks. Just remember that it is only your job to make your own decisions. You can get help, and you can offer help, to brainstorm various pros and cons of your decisions and the decisions of your loved ones, but in the end, each of us has to make our own decisions that are best for each of us, with the full realization that we bear the consequences of our decisions. Decision making can be complicated and emotional, and this is exponentially so, these days. Let’s be kind to one another, and hold on to the idea that each of us is doing the best we can with the myriad of weighty decisions (because these days, all of our decisions carry some weight) which we are making on a daily basis.
“Here are some guidelines to help you determine if your risk is worth taking:
- Use a sounding board. Your brain wants to keep you within your personal safety zone, which differs for each situation depending on past experiences and your taste for challenge. It is better to talk through options with someone who will not be affected by your choice. Also, don’t choose someone who likes to tell others what they should do (especially family). As you explain the pros and cons of risking, notice how you feel. How badly do you want what the risk will give you? Do your reasons make you feel proud or satisfied? Your emotions may indicate how important taking the risk is to you.
Note – Try the Coin Trick. Assign your options to heads or tails. Flip the coin. The moment you see the result, are you disappointed or relieved? The trick might help you uncover what you really want to do. - Catch your “shoulds.” It’s hard to make a decision when you are attached to other people’s opinions. What do you think they will say if you take the risk? Write these statements down to identify your fears of their judgements and your guilt about disappointing others. Recognition of your should-based actions can also free you from black-and-white, stay or go, decisions. You might find other options available to you when you clearly understand what you want for yourself in the future.
- Know your why. Be mindful of being driven by needs for recognition or acceptance. When you assess the value of your risk, what type of satisfaction do you gain? What outcome will you be most proud of over time? What would you do if you had no people to take care of or please? Twenty years from now, what would you love to tell people about the risk you took? What story do you want to be living?
For life-changing risks, consider the strengths you love to exercise. Can you envision using these strengths in a deeply satisfying way? Activist Audre Lorde said, “When I dare to be powerful, to use my strengths in the service of my vision, then it becomes less and less important whether I am afraid.” - Ask your heart and gut. Although the science of intuition is debatable, you may get insights from this exercise. After you list out the pros and cons, open your heart by looking at pictures that make you smile. You probably have shots on your phone of your family, pets, or sunrises. Once you feel joy or gratitude, ask your heart if the risk feels right. Review your pros and cons from this perspective. Then open your gut by recalling a time in your life when you spoke up or acted in spite of your fear. Feel your courage pulse in your gut. Then ask your gut what to do. Use this perspective to determine new ways to deal with possible consequences.
- Be honest about what could go wrong. Don’t ignore hazards. When you look at possible problems, how would you handle them? When I left my last job to start my business, I knew if I failed, I would find another job. Fear can blind you to your options once you take a risk. Consider bad outcomes, determine the likelihood they will happen, and what you would do next.
If you decide the risk is worth taking, commit to taking a few steps, even if the steps are small. You might read a book, have a conversation with someone about the direction you want to take, or sign up for a class on starting a business. Do something to keep moving. Then, if things don’t go as you hoped for, allow for self-correction. Learn along the way.
No matter what you decide, you will encounter difficulties. You will question your choices. You may even find your choice was just a step to the next as you create many chapters in your life.
Which risks will you regret NOT making a year from now? Decide what risks are worth taking and take the first step today.”
